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Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5

Sports→Settlement: OverLiquidity: $407.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $410.7KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
100.0¢
Over payout
0.0¢
Under payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $31.5K net·7 wallets(2🐋)·$78.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$35.0K@ 54¢·BrotherObama

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Over. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-07 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles combine to score 8 or more runs in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for September 7 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $35.8K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $22.7K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $13.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Under@ 54.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -12.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -10.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Under@ 52.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +15.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $1.5K
6hUnder · $31.9K
24hUnder · $102.0K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h49.2¢▲ above by 50.8pp
VWAP 7d49.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$4
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$28
60¢
$3.3K
55¢
$5.1K
50¢
$55.6K
45¢
$121.0K
40¢
$4.8K
35¢
$603
30¢
$84
25¢
$0
20¢
$3
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$35.0K@ 54.4¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—2 days ago
BUYUnder$19.2K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—2 days ago
BUYUnder$11.4K@ 52.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—2 days ago
BUYOver$14.3K@ 49.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—2 days ago
BUYUnder$18.0K@ 51.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—2 days ago
BUYUnder$22.6K@ 50.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—2 days ago
BUYOver$10.0K@ 51.0¢
SemyonMarmeladov0x37e4…c991
🐋—2 days ago
BUYUnder$15.5K@ 49.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Under$58.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·4 fills
BrotherObamaUnder$35.0K
BUY VWAP 54.4¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Under$19.7K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Over$14.3K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
ic4creamUnder$11.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
SemyonMarmeladovOver$10.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.