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Capitals vs. Lightning

Sports→HockeySettlement: LightningLiquidity: $153.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $143.1KEvent: Capitals vs. Lightning
0.0¢
Capitals payout
100.0¢
Lightning payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLightning$12.2K@ 61¢·tankfest2027

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Lightning. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-03 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals".

•If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 3 at 7:00PM ET: If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Capitals; negative values favor Lightning. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLightning · $1.6K
6hCapitals · $1.7K
24hLightning · $35.2K

Capitals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Capitals price. Lightning fills are converted to the complementary Capitals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h35.7¢▼ below by 35.7pp
VWAP 7d35.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Capitals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$7.2K
35¢
$37.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.5K
15¢
$253
10¢
$279
5¢
$185
0¢
← now
$1.4K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLightning$11.6K@ 65.0¢0x0cdf…ec9e🐋—10 days ago
BUYLightning$12.2K@ 61.0¢
tankfest20270x4d6e…5cfd
🐋—10 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.