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1st Half Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)

● quote 36s ago
Sports→Closes: about 14 hoursLiquidity: $27.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $148.6KEvent: Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Celta de Vigo - More Markets
16.0¢
Real Sociedad de Fútbol
84.0¢
RC Celta de Vigo
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$33.6K trackedsource coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 226 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Real Sociedad de Fútbol · $26.9K net·3 wallets·$27.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRC Celta de Vigo$3.4K@ 85¢·0x15a6…bf5d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3.4K
tracked
$33.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: Real Sociedad de Fútbol · $26.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 226 minutes old.
  • •Less than 14h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-03 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•In the upcoming La Liga game between Real Sociedad de Fútbol and RC Celta de Vigo, scheduled for September 3 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Sociedad de Fútbol" if Real Sociedad de Fútbol win the first half by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "RC Celta de Vigo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game between Real Sociedad de Fútbol and RC Celta de Vigo, scheduled for September 3 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Sociedad de Fútbol" if Real Sociedad de Fútbol win the first half by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "RC Celta de Vigo". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus first-half stoppage time. Second-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $52.2K gross
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $942 gross
0x1d9d…1e7e2 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Real Sociedad de Fútbol@ 42.0¢8h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -22.0pp6h INVALIDATED -27.0pp
Latest book event: Real Sociedad de Fútbol UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $3 → $44 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Real Sociedad de Fútbol; negative values favor RC Celta de Vigo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hReal Sociedad de Fútbol · $0
6hRC Celta de Vigo · $3.4K
24hReal Sociedad de Fútbol · $24.1K

Real Sociedad de Fútbol price VWAP

Volume-weighted Real Sociedad de Fútbol price. RC Celta de Vigo fills are converted to the complementary Real Sociedad de Fútbol probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.0¢
VWAP 24h42.2¢▼ below by 26.2pp
VWAP 7d42.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Real Sociedad de Fútbol price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$5.2K
45¢
$19.6K
40¢
$319
35¢
$13
30¢
$1.6K
25¢
$2.9K
20¢
$29
15¢
← now
$4.0K
10¢
$17
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesReal Sociedad de Fútbol$27.3K
BUY VWAP 46.7¢·24 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.