PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $64.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $352.1KEvent: US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino
100.0¢
Alexander Bublik
0.1¢
Adrian Mannarino
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly27Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:59 trades$131.0K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alexander Bublik · $4.1K net·3 wallets·$6.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAdrian Mannarino$20.5K@ 25¢·Gourmet1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Adrian Mannarino pressure: $1.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.0K
6h
+$33.8K
tracked
$131.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: Alexander Bublik · $4.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 56 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Adrian Mannarino or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Adrian Mannarino in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 25.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Bublik; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdrian Mannarino · $1.0K
6hAlexander Bublik · $33.8K
24hAdrian Mannarino · $5.6K

Alexander Bublik price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Bublik price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Bublik probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h80.7¢▲ above by 19.2pp
VWAP 7d80.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Alexander Bublik price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$14.7K
90¢
$1.3K
85¢
$19.2K
80¢
$10.4K
75¢
$85.4K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlexander Bublik$11.4K@ 88.0¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$20.5K@ 25.0¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$18.5K@ 25.0¢
Gourmet10xc430…1ebf
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
33.5¢$561.8Kpriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
98.3¢$474.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$407.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$307.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$305.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$296.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Gourmet1Adrian Mannarino$51.5K
BUY VWAP 24.9¢·5 fills
sifonmanAlexander Bublik$10.8K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·7 fills
afrazAlexander Bublik$10.0K
BUY VWAP 77.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.