Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

● quote 23s ago

Politics→Culture→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $10.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $90.5KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?

0.5¢

YES

99.5¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:46 trades$5.6K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $305 net·7 wallets·$377 gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$1.8K@ 94¢·stauffen

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$1

−$803

tracked

$5.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: NO · $305 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Observed tape is 53 minutes old.
•Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-09-11 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

PredictionYogi2 linked markets · $21.1K gross

0x913f…c6762 linked markets · $14.6K gross

AlmostRich3 linked markets · $10.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $1

6hNO · $803

24hNO · $2.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.5¢

VWAP 24h4.3¢▼ below by 3.8pp

VWAP 7d4.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

$3.0K

0¢

← now

$2.6K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…

Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

0.3¢$473.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

20.5¢$133.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

79.5¢$130.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

0.1¢$77.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.1¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0.1¢$1.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0.1¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

0.3¢$580.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.