Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

● quote just now

Politics→Culture→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $6.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $130.3KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?

79.5¢

YES

20.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:82 trades$7.6K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $733 net·7 wallets·$1.8K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$1.2K@ 89¢·0x9298…de2c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

+$1.2K

+$2.4K

tracked

$7.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: YES · $733 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 47 minutes old.
•Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-09-11 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

PredictionYogi2 linked markets · $21.1K gross

0x913f…c6762 linked markets · $14.6K gross

AlmostRich3 linked markets · $10.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: YES UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $1.0K → $483 · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $1.2K

6hYES · $2.4K

24hYES · $2.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current79.5¢

VWAP 24h83.9¢▼ below by 4.4pp

VWAP 7d83.9¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

$108

85¢

$3.8K

80¢

$1.5K

75¢

← now

$1.6K

70¢

$545

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

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35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

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5¢

0¢

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.