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US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $28.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $362.7KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken
74.0¢
Vilius Gaubas
26.0¢
Harry Wendelken
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:84 trades$148.0K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 59s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Vilius Gaubas · $20.2K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$24.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLVilius Gaubas$27.7K@ 75¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$110
6h
−$516
tracked
$148.0K

5 verified profitable wallets: Vilius Gaubas · $20.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-03 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Vilius Gaubas and Harry Wendelken in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Vilius Gaubas' if Vilius Gaubas advances against Harry Wendelken. This market will resolve to 'Harry Wendelken' if Harry Wendelken advances against Vilius Gaubas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Vilius Gaubas@ 73.0¢12h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Vilius Gaubas@ 59.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp6h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
Latest book event: Harry Wendelken DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $427 → $618 · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vilius Gaubas; negative values favor Harry Wendelken. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVilius Gaubas · $110
6hHarry Wendelken · $516
24hVilius Gaubas · $10.8K

Vilius Gaubas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vilius Gaubas price. Harry Wendelken fills are converted to the complementary Vilius Gaubas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.0¢
VWAP 24h67.6¢▲ above by 6.4pp
VWAP 7d67.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vilius Gaubas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.8K
85¢
$2.6K
80¢
$2.8K
75¢
$49.4K
70¢
← now
$28.7K
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$4.0K
55¢
$43.0K
50¢
$14.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHarry Wendelken$12.0K@ 29.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYVilius Gaubas$11.5K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 12 hours ago
SELLVilius Gaubas$27.7K@ 75.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYVilius Gaubas$26.6K@ 59.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Vilius Gaubas$29.3K
BUY VWAP 59.5¢·2 fills
0x5f65…2036Harry Wendelken$12.0K
BUY VWAP 29.4¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Vilius Gaubas$11.5K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill
alexdave888Harry Wendelken$10.1K
BUY VWAP 39.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.