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US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $56.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $478.9KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin
99.9¢
Toby Samuel
1.0¢
Cristian Garin
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution23Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:124 trades$204.3K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 220 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cristian Garin · $14.0K net·11 wallets(2🐋)·$43.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCristian Garin$18.0K@ 63¢·skitit

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$11.3K
tracked
$204.3K

11 verified profitable wallets: Cristian Garin · $14.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 220 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-03 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Samuel and Cristian Garin in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Cristian Garin. This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Toby Samuel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cristian Garin@ 67.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Toby Samuel@ 62.0¢12h ago
15m INVALIDATED -29.0pp1h INVALIDATED -31.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Toby Samuel UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $37.4K → $51.4K · 19s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Toby Samuel; negative values favor Cristian Garin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hToby Samuel · $0
6hCristian Garin · $11.3K
24hCristian Garin · $39.2K

Toby Samuel price VWAP

Volume-weighted Toby Samuel price. Cristian Garin fills are converted to the complementary Toby Samuel probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h51.8¢▲ above by 48.1pp
VWAP 7d51.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Toby Samuel price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$19.7K
90¢
$6.5K
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$12
75¢
$38
70¢
$4.5K
65¢
$20.9K
60¢
$22.9K
55¢
$1.8K
50¢
$13.9K
45¢
$2.1K
40¢
$4.4K
35¢
$47.5K
30¢
$47.6K
25¢
$11.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLToby Samuel$11.3K@ 99.9¢
Jeffplatter0xb399…608e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
SELLToby Samuel$14.1K@ 64.9¢
Tantula0xd607…842a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLCristian Garin$10.6K@ 64.5¢
skitit0x54c2…23ad
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYCristian Garin$14.1K@ 67.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYCristian Garin$18.0K@ 63.1¢
skitit0x54c2…23ad
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYCristian Garin$10.0K@ 65.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYToby Samuel$13.1K@ 54.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYToby Samuel$11.2K@ 67.0¢
Tantula0xd607…842a
🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

skititCristian Garin$18.0K
BUY VWAP 63.1¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Cristian Garin$14.1K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
0b1feCristian Garin$14.0K
BUY VWAP 65.3¢·2 fills
0xe907…cff6Toby Samuel$13.1K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·2 fills
TantulaToby Samuel$13.0K
BUY VWAP 59.9¢·2 fills
alexdave888Cristian Garin$10.2K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.