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US Open, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Guido Justo

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $61.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $157.3KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Guido Justo
86.5¢
Hugo Gaston
13.5¢
Guido Justo
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$35.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 71 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hugo Gaston · $14.4K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$14.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHugo Gaston$10.5K@ 83¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$21.4K
tracked
$35.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Hugo Gaston · $14.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 71 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Gaston and Guido Justo in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Guido Justo. This market will resolve to 'Guido Justo' if Guido Justo advances against Hugo Gaston. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hugo Gaston; negative values favor Guido Justo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHugo Gaston · $0
6hHugo Gaston · $21.4K
24hHugo Gaston · $21.4K

Hugo Gaston price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hugo Gaston price. Guido Justo fills are converted to the complementary Hugo Gaston probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current86.5¢
VWAP 24h82.2¢▲ above by 4.3pp
VWAP 7d82.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hugo Gaston price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$4.4K
80¢
$26.5K
75¢
$3.9K
70¢
$1.0K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHugo Gaston$10.5K@ 83.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Hugo Gaston$14.4K
BUY VWAP 81.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.