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US Open, Qualification ATP: Harry Wendelken vs Stefano Travaglia

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $394.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $131.1KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Harry Wendelken vs Stefano Travaglia
59.0¢
Harry Wendelken
41.0¢
Stefano Travaglia
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:75 trades$49.3K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Stefano Travaglia · $20.6K net·7 wallets·$20.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYStefano Travaglia$8.9K@ 45¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Harry Wendelken pressure: $2.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.8K
6h
−$10.6K
tracked
$49.3K

7 verified profitable wallets: Stefano Travaglia · $20.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 74% · priority 68

Since latest large flow: +10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 10.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Harry Wendelken or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Harry Wendelken and Stefano Travaglia in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harry Wendelken' if Harry Wendelken advances against Stefano Travaglia. This market will resolve to 'Stefano Travaglia' if Stefano Travaglia advances against Harry Wendelken. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Stefano Travaglia1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Stefano Travaglia@ 34.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Harry Wendelken DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $81.2K → $60.5K · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Harry Wendelken; negative values favor Stefano Travaglia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHarry Wendelken · $2.8K
6hStefano Travaglia · $10.6K
24hStefano Travaglia · $9.2K

Harry Wendelken price VWAP

Volume-weighted Harry Wendelken price. Stefano Travaglia fills are converted to the complementary Harry Wendelken probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.0¢
VWAP 24h59.2¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d59.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Harry Wendelken price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$6
75¢
$212
70¢
$5.2K
65¢
$10.4K
60¢
$3.3K
55¢
← now
$26.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.3K
40¢
$21
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Stefano Travaglia$17.7K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·3 fills
0x963a…9b96Harry Wendelken$12.1K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.