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Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?

Science→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $3.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.1KEvent: Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
5.9¢
YES
94.0¢
NO
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:33 trades$51.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 248 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$10.8K@ 98¢·Hans323

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
DISPUTED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en
Outcome meaning

•Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.

•A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.

Read full resolution rules

Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline. A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting. JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Territorial definitions: "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan. "Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands. "South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 10.5pp · near-book depth $7.9K → $8.7K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $7
24hNO · $48.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.9¢
VWAP 24h2.4¢▲ above by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d2.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$4.0K
0¢
$77.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.5K@ 98.6¢
GlobalMuffin0xff1e…5e2d
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYNO$10.8K@ 98.0¢
Hans3230x0f37…1410
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

GlobalMuffinNo$18.0K
BUY VWAP 98.4¢·3 fills
Rex416No$14.8K
BUY VWAP 98.5¢·3 fills
RaskellNo$12.4K
BUY VWAP 97.9¢·7 fills
Hans323No$10.8K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.