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Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $3.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $631.3KEvent: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
86.6¢
Chicago Cubs
13.4¢
Arizona Diamondbacks
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly56Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:112 trades$301.4K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chicago Cubs · $14.5K net·11 wallets(3🐋)·$178.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona Diamondbacks$76.0K@ 38¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Chicago Cubs pressure: $4.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.8K
6h
+$78.8K
tracked
$301.4K

11 verified profitable wallets: Chicago Cubs · $14.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 53 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chicago Cubs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-02 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 25 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $40.1K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $22.8K gross
1winstreak12 linked markets · $20.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Chicago Cubs2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Chicago Cubs@ 86.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +6.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.7pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Arizona Diamondbacks@ 15.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago Cubs@ 82.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.2pp
Latest book event: Arizona Diamondbacks DOWN 10.6pp · near-book depth $14.6K → $6 · 49s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chicago Cubs; negative values favor Arizona Diamondbacks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChicago Cubs · $4.8K
6hChicago Cubs · $78.8K
24hChicago Cubs · $77.3K

Chicago Cubs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chicago Cubs price. Arizona Diamondbacks fills are converted to the complementary Chicago Cubs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current86.6¢
VWAP 24h69.9¢▲ above by 16.7pp
VWAP 7d69.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chicago Cubs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$22.9K
90¢
$48.0K
85¢
← now
$32.5K
80¢
$8.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$18.4K
60¢
$103.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$31.4K
45¢
$32.2K
40¢
$4.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChicago Cubs$35.6K@ 94.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$19.9K@ 86.0¢0x38e5…95e7🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$19.9K@ 61.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYArizona Diamondbacks$76.0K@ 38.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$16.6K@ 67.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$10.3K@ 50.0¢
thatguythatguy0x3170…c6a0
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago Cubs$24.5K@ 47.4¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYArizona Diamondbacks$12.1K@ 50.0¢
sbsigner0x1b47…d814
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Arizona Diamondbacks$76.0K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·1 fill
0F62Chicago Cubs$39.4K
BUY VWAP 93.9¢·4 fills
0x38e5…95e7Chicago Cubs$25.8K
BUY VWAP 86.2¢·3 fills
NiNo999Chicago Cubs$24.5K
BUY VWAP 47.4¢·1 fill
DjdjdjekekekChicago Cubs$21.5K
BUY VWAP 61.1¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Chicago Cubs$16.6K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
1winstreak1Chicago Cubs$16.0K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·3 fills
sbsignerArizona Diamondbacks$12.1K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
thatguythatguyChicago Cubs$11.9K
BUY VWAP 49.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.