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Spread: Bills (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $323.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $598.7KEvent: Chargers vs. Bills
100.0¢
Bills
0.1¢
Chargers
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:59 trades$300.6K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 84 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bills · $11.1K net·2 wallets·$13.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBills$172.6K@ 56¢·Tiger200

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$180.5K
tracked
$300.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Bills · $11.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +44.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 84 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 44.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chargers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chargers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard9 linked markets · $253.8K gross
Tiger2002 linked markets · $218.0K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $126.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 56.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 56.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 56.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Bills UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $8 → $187 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bills; negative values favor Chargers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBills · $0
6hBills · $180.5K
24hBills · $244.3K

Bills price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bills price. Chargers fills are converted to the complementary Bills probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h55.7¢▲ above by 44.3pp
VWAP 7d55.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Bills price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$116
60¢
$0
55¢
$302.4K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$7
25¢
$0
20¢
$1
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBills$10.3K@ 56.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYBills$172.6K@ 55.9¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYBills$41.9K@ 56.0¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYBills$34.8K@ 56.0¢
liquiditycrisis0xa904…d20c
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYChargers$11.5K@ 45.0¢0xd3a0…f136🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Tiger200Bills$182.9K
BUY VWAP 55.9¢·2 fills
JsramBills$41.9K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
liquiditycrisisBills$34.8K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
0xd3a0…f136Chargers$13.9K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
HerdoniaBills$12.4K
BUY VWAP 55.4¢·36 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.