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Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)

● quote 49s ago
Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $166.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.8KEvent: Patriots vs. Jaguars
53.5¢
Jaguars
46.5¢
Patriots
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$1.4K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 187 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPatriots$19.8K@ 46¢·TKD44

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$13
tracked
$1.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Jaguars · $1.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Observed tape is 187 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Jaguars" if the Jaguars win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Patriots".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Jaguars" if the Jaguars win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TKD442 linked markets · $52.0K gross
Herdonia2 linked markets · $5.8K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $5.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Patriots@ 47.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jaguars; negative values favor Patriots. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJaguars · $0
6hPatriots · $13
24hPatriots · $1.4K

Jaguars price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jaguars price. Patriots fills are converted to the complementary Jaguars probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h54.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d54.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jaguars price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$7
50¢
← now
$45.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPatriots$19.8K@ 46.0¢
TKD440x68df…4815
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

TKD44Patriots$26.9K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.