Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?

● quote 97 min ago

Crypto→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $11.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $192.5KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?

17.0¢

YES

83.0¢

6.0¢

Spread

anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution38Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:73 trades$74.8K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 131 min agoofficial metadata 99 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUp (YES)$9.4K@ 47¢·0xd04b…1ee8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$66

−$2.4K

tracked

$74.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$10 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 97 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 131 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 99 minutes old.
•Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-19 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Down@ 60.0¢17h ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Down@ 59.0¢18h ago

15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h CONFIRMED +8.0pp

Latest book event: NO UP 12.0pp · near-book depth $544 → $525 · 62s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$66

6h−$2.4K

24h−$23.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current17.0¢

VWAP 24h42.3¢▼ below by 25.3pp

VWAP 7d42.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

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65¢

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55¢