Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $240.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $337.6KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

8.5¢

YES

91.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:51 trades$18.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 85 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $6 net·2 wallets·$46 gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$200.0K@ 80¢·notprofitabl

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$15.2K

tracked

$18.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $6 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 85 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 05:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

boyau747 linked markets · $96.1K gross

justdance9 linked markets · $93.9K gross

greater-fools6 linked markets · $52.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 92.0¢13d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 10.0¢14d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 92.0¢17d ago

15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 94.0¢17d ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hNO · $15.2K

24hNO · $14.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current8.5¢

VWAP 24h5.7¢▲ above by 2.8pp

VWAP 7d8.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

$377.5K

15¢

$47.7K

10¢

$290.2K

5¢

← now

$471.5K

0¢

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

SELLYES$12.6K@ 5.0¢

Heisui0x6ad9…8d2e

🐋—about 4 hours ago

SELLNO$31.6K@ 90.0¢0x7b5c…4960🐋—5 days ago

BUYYES$10.0K@ 10.0¢

greater-fools0x216b…d8a5

🐋—6 days ago

SELLNO$10.1K@ 90.0¢

Lackvill0xb5aa…5bd7

🐋—6 days ago

BUYNO$24.2K@ 93.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—13 days ago

BUYNO$27.6K@ 92.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—13 days ago

BUYNO$26.9K@ 93.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—17 days ago

BUYNO$26.1K@ 92.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—18 days ago

BUYNO$46.7K@ 91.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—18 days ago

BUYNO$27.9K@ 90.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—18 days ago

SELLNO$17.6K@ 90.0¢

herbertdudu0x273b…de09

🐋—19 days ago

BUYNO$73.3K@ 91.7¢

howaboutsendit0x7dd3…4ae7

🐋—22 days ago

SELLNO$71.0K@ 88.7¢

Mpire10x56ad…f13e

🐋—22 days ago

SELLNO$36.0K@ 90.0¢

Mpire10x56ad…f13e

🐋—22 days ago

BUYNO$36.4K@ 92.0¢

JnStrtPrdctnMrkts0x1465…7072

🐋—24 days ago

SELLNO$20.2K@ 91.0¢

tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5

🐋—24 days ago

BUYNO$13.0K@ 81.0¢

Tokor0xa19c…de6b

🐋—27 days ago

BUYNO$200.0K@ 80.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—29 days ago

BUYNO$76.8K@ 80.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—30 days ago

BUYNO$67.2K@ 79.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—30 days ago

BUYNO$71.1K@ 79.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—about 1 month ago

BUYNO$32.0K@ 80.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—about 1 month ago

BUYNO$59.3K@ 79.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—about 1 month ago

BUYNO$55.6K@ 73.7¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—about 2 months ago

BUYNO$34.9K@ 72.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—about 2 months ago

BUYNO$11.7K@ 79.0¢

tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5

🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

greater-foolsYes$14.0K

BUY VWAP 9.7¢·3 fills

justdanceNo$11.2K

BUY VWAP 93.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.