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Raiders vs. Saints

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $693.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.0MEvent: Raiders vs. Saints
48.5¢
Raiders
51.5¢
Saints
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 22 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:324 trades$1.0M tracked7% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Saints · $163.0K net·22 wallets(6🐋)·$408.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSaints$125.8K@ 63¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Raiders SETUP
What the tape says

Raiders pressure: $97.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$97.9K
6h
−$95.6K
tracked
$1.0M

22 verified profitable wallets: Saints · $163.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 55

Since latest position change: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Raiders or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders".

•If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:25PM ET: If Raiders wins, the market will resolve to "Raiders". If Saints wins, the market will resolve to "Saints". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $300.2K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $186.6K gross
Kch-Temp2 linked markets · $169.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Saints@ 47.0¢25m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
COUNTER FLOWBUY Raiders@ 52.0¢28m ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Raiders55m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Raiders55m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Raiders UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $10.1K → $951 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raiders; negative values favor Saints. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaiders · $97.9K
6hSaints · $95.6K
24hSaints · $164.5K

Raiders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raiders price. Saints fills are converted to the complementary Raiders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h43.5¢▲ above by 5.0pp
VWAP 7d43.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raiders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.7K
60¢
$64.8K
55¢
$116.9K
50¢
$107.1K
45¢
← now
$115.6K
40¢
$76.2K
35¢
$550.9K
30¢
$10.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSaints$11.2K@ 45.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYRaiders$16.9K@ 52.0¢
sbsigner0x1b47…d814
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYRaiders$12.1K@ 51.6¢
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYRaiders$12.6K@ 55.0¢
sbsigner0x1b47…d814
🐋—30 minutes ago
BUYRaiders$17.8K@ 62.0¢
Qpkwks0x9ee8…89de
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSaints$27.3K@ 39.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaiders$19.5K@ 55.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSaints$17.0K@ 63.0¢
edge77770xdf60…08c7
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSaints$13.1K@ 62.0¢
analdesutructor0xf8fd…876f
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRaiders$24.0K@ 36.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSaints$15.1K@ 60.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$15.6K@ 60.0¢
curie0xd1ed…d7cb
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaiders$23.8K@ 45.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaiders$13.3K@ 46.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$15.2K@ 58.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaiders$17.2K@ 39.4¢
analdesutructor0xf8fd…876f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$32.5K@ 65.0¢0xfb3e…a19a🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$11.9K@ 65.0¢
everythingisokay0xb6c3…600f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$11.0K@ 65.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$19.5K@ 65.0¢
everythingisokay0xb6c3…600f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$10.0K@ 64.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRaiders$74.0K@ 37.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$125.8K@ 63.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSaints$18.9K@ 63.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempSaints$125.8K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Raiders$90.0K
BUY VWAP 43.9¢·5 fills
Sassy-BucketRaiders$74.0K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
sbsignerRaiders$52.6K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·8 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rSaints$41.3K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·13 fills
0xfb3e…a19aSaints$34.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·2 fills
fkcvffcjtSaints$32.8K
BUY VWAP 54.8¢·4 fills
everythingisokaySaints$31.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafSaints$27.3K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill
ic4creamSaints$21.6K
BUY VWAP 64.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.