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UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)

Sports→Settlement: Chris PadillaLiquidity: $330.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $513.5KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Lightweight, Prelims)
100.0¢
Chris Padilla payout
0.0¢
Nasrat Haqparast payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chris Padilla · $1.1K net·4 wallets·$18.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNasrat Haqparast$70.5K@ 49¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Chris Padilla. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-23 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chris Padilla" if Chris Padilla is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nasrat Haqparast at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Nasrat Haqparast" if Nasrat Haqparast is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Chris Padilla" if Chris Padilla is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nasrat Haqparast at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Nasrat Haqparast" if Nasrat Haqparast is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Nasrat Haqparast@ 49.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -40.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nasrat Haqparast@ 49.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nasrat Haqparast@ 49.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chris Padilla; negative values favor Nasrat Haqparast. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNasrat Haqparast · $44.8K
6hNasrat Haqparast · $160.8K
24hNasrat Haqparast · $156.5K

Chris Padilla price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chris Padilla price. Nasrat Haqparast fills are converted to the complementary Chris Padilla probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h57.4¢▲ above by 42.6pp
VWAP 7d56.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chris Padilla price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23.1K
90¢
$1.4K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$513
70¢
$3.0K
65¢
$53
60¢
$312
55¢
$3.6K
50¢
$180.2K
45¢
$10.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNasrat Haqparast$32.0K@ 49.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNasrat Haqparast$70.5K@ 49.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNasrat Haqparast$38.6K@ 48.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketNasrat Haqparast$141.2K
BUY VWAP 48.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.