Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)

● quote 175 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $262.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $279.1KEvent: Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:32 trades$97.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 297 min agoofficial metadata 164 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$56.3K@ 40¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$97.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 175 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 297 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 164 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 19:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and Team Falcons in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more games than Nigma Galaxy in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 9h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e304 linked markets · $156.0K gross
0x2929…1dd03 linked markets · $125.8K gross
0x1896…a7d62 linked markets · $93.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 39.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $378$954 · 49s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$1.5K
24h+$77.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.5¢▼ below by 38.4pp
VWAP 7d38.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$7
55¢
$5
50¢
$0
45¢
$244
40¢
$71.1K
35¢
$20.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$625
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.4K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$56.3K@ 40.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75Team Falcons$64.8K
BUY VWAP 39.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.