PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $173.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $160.0KEvent: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage
71.5¢
YES
28.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%
24h sample:95 trades$43.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIron Wing (YES)$20.0K@ 46¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$910
6h
+$18.3K
tracked
$43.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +23.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 23.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between Iron Wing and Team Liquid in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Iron Wing" if Iron Wing win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Iron Wing. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $128.5K gross
0xc69b…20763 linked markets · $1.8K gross
0x904e…0bec2 linked markets · $429 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Iron Wing@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +23.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Iron Wing@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $15 → $124 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$910
6h+$18.3K
24h+$19.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current71.5¢
VWAP 24h49.2¢▲ above by 22.3pp
VWAP 7d49.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.5K
80¢
$233
75¢
$669
70¢
← now
$1.3K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$70
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$36.7K
40¢
$586
35¢
$52
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYIron Wing (YES)$20.0K@ 46.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$734.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
49.5¢$36.1Kpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Iron Wing$26.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.