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Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

● quote 52 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $165.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $413.5KEvent: Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage
17.5¢
YES
82.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:132 trades$144.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 53 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $10.1K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$16.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIron Wing (YES)$16.9K@ 54¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$16.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$16.3K
6h
+$18.5K
tracked
$144.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$10.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 55

Since latest confirmed build: -30.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 52 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 53 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between Iron Wing and Team Liquid in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Iron Wing" if Iron Wing win Game 1 against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against Iron Wing. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $31.7K gross
0x904e…0bec2 linked markets · $429 gross
0x775d…6beb2 linked markets · $374 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Iron Wing@ 48.0¢54m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Liquid@ 53.0¢54m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Iron Wing@ 57.0¢54m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $265 → $1.5K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$16.3K
6h+$18.5K
24h+$18.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current17.5¢
VWAP 24h50.3¢▼ below by 32.8pp
VWAP 7d50.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$148.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.3K
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.9K
60¢
$495
55¢
$8.1K
50¢
$81.1K
45¢
$34.6K
40¢
$7.4K
35¢
$13.9K
30¢
$1.5K
25¢
$6.6K
20¢
$3.8K
15¢
← now
$9.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLIron Wing (YES)$57.8K@ 99.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—15 minutes ago
SELLIron Wing (YES)$14.3K@ 99.9¢
gxxyy0x4aec…4ce9
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYTeam Liquid (NO)$12.5K@ 51.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYIron Wing (YES)$16.9K@ 53.9¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage
35.5¢$124.2Kpriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115Iron Wing$42.4K
BUY VWAP 53.4¢·7 fills
0x2c33…0563Team Liquid$12.5K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0xc835…3911Team Liquid$12.4K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.