PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 1 Winner

● quote 34 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $463.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $390.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:86 trades$167.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 119 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAstralis (YES)$13.4K@ 100¢·0xff80…9b4d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$27.5K
tracked
$167.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$5.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +47.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 34 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 119 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between Astralis and NIP in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 1 against NIP. This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win Map 1 against Astralis. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 16, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $90.6K gross
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $76.6K gross
0x0063…2dd23 linked markets · $68.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NIP@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -52.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $71 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$27.5K
24h−$43.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h70.8¢▲ above by 29.1pp
VWAP 7d70.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$57.0K
90¢
$3.8K
85¢
$8.4K
80¢
$3.7K
75¢
$5.4K
70¢
$3.1K
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$11.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$60.5K
40¢
$4.4K
35¢
$7.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLAstralis (YES)$13.4K@ 99.9¢0xff80…9b4d🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAstralis (YES)$12.0K@ 97.0¢0x95c2…421b🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNIP (NO)$11.2K@ 52.0¢0x7d9d…3c52🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
100.0¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$969.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
0.1¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
25.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$808.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$687.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner
100.0¢$607.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
0.1¢$568.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7d9d…3c52NIP$18.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·3 fills
111111111115NIP$15.9K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills
0x73e3…1be9NIP$15.7K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·3 fills
0x95c2…421bAstralis$12.0K
BUY VWAP 97.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.