Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 44 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $179.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $498.7KEvent: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage
59.5¢
YES
40.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$210.9K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 47 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$36.4K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$36.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$32.3K@ 39¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$8.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.5K
6h
−$18.3K
tracked
$210.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$36.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 44 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 50 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 47 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between TEAM VISION and Team Spirit in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against TEAM VISION. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Djdjdjekekek2 linked markets · $107.7K gross
iDARKenjoyer2 linked markets · $24.7K gross
0xc69b…20762 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 38.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Team Spirit@ 40.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY TEAM VISION@ 62.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY TEAM VISION@ 62.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $21.3K$9.6K · 8s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$8.5K
6h$18.3K
24h$13.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h61.0¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d61.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$208.6K
55¢
← now
$2.3K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$13.9K@ 61.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$32.3K@ 38.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLTeam Spirit (NO)$15.0K@ 35.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$19.2K@ 40.0¢0x1896…a7d6🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$16.6K@ 60.0¢
S-Works0xee00…cea1
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$20.3K@ 40.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$32.0K@ 40.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
51.5¢$54.1Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekTeam Spirit$86.0K
BUY VWAP 39.5¢·4 fills
iDARKenjoyerTEAM VISION$19.3K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·3 fills
0x1896…a7d6Team Spirit$19.2K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563TEAM VISION$17.1K
BUY VWAP 61.2¢·2 fills
S-WorksTEAM VISION$16.6K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.