Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

● quote 3 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $720.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $676.5KEvent: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:219 trades$361.9K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $13.4K·2 wallets·$13.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$20.0K@ 56¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$25.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$25.3K
6h
+$62.5K
tracked
$361.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$13.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +44.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • Executable BUY price moved 44.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between TEAM VISION and Team Spirit in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION win Game 1 against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 1 against TEAM VISION. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Djdjdjekekek2 linked markets · $107.7K gross
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $98.0K gross
iDARKenjoyer2 linked markets · $24.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY TEAM VISION@ 56.0¢23m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY TEAM VISION@ 53.0¢23m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Spirit@ 45.0¢23m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY TEAM VISION@ 56.0¢23m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.5K$875 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$25.3K
6h+$62.5K
24h+$62.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h70.9¢▲ above by 29.0pp
VWAP 7d70.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$96.8K
90¢
$12.1K
85¢
$6.1K
80¢
$371
75¢
$3.4K
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$0
60¢
$47.8K
55¢
$170.1K
50¢
$23.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTEAM VISION (YES)$13.0K@ 99.9¢0x57b4…b46b🐋13 minutes ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$16.2K@ 99.8¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋14 minutes ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$10.0K@ 54.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$17.4K@ 58.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$14.6K@ 57.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$20.0K@ 56.2¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$10.0K@ 57.3¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$10.0K@ 57.2¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$10.0K@ 61.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$10.0K@ 60.4¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage
83.5¢$544.5Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
62.5¢$11.2Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30TEAM VISION$84.0K
BUY VWAP 57.7¢·10 fills
111111111115TEAM VISION$50.6K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·7 fills
backbackTEAM VISION$16.2K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.