Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B

● quote 66 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $928.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $350.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:70 trades$175.2K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 74 min agoofficial metadata 70 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$13.3K·2 wallets·$13.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$37.5K@ 81¢·0xeac2…dddc

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$13.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$13.8K
6h
+$127.0K
tracked
$175.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$13.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 66 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 74 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 70 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Team Falcons and Astralis in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xeac2…dddc3 linked markets · $46.4K gross
0x0063…2dd22 linked markets · $36.2K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $29.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Team Falcons@ 95.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Team Falcons2h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Falcons@ 85.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +6.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 84.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$13.8K
6h+$127.0K
24h+$133.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h83.5¢▲ above by 16.5pp
VWAP 7d83.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23.0K
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$3.0K
80¢
$145.5K
75¢
$2.2K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$37.5K@ 81.0¢0xeac2…dddc🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$29.4K@ 81.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$21.8K@ 80.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Team Falcons$51.2K
BUY VWAP 80.6¢·2 fills
0xeac2…dddcTeam Falcons$37.5K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.