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Spread: Bears (-4.5)

Sports→Settlement: VikingsLiquidity: $107.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $583.9KEvent: Vikings vs. Bears
0.0¢
Bears payout
100.0¢
Vikings payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVikings$99.5K@ 50¢·Kch-Temp

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Vikings. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Vikings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Vikings".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Vikings". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Vikings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Bears@ 49.0¢7d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Vikings@ 52.0¢7d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h CONFIRMED +44.7pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Vikings@ 51.0¢8d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -5.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bears; negative values favor Vikings. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBears · $0
6hBears · $263
24hVikings · $79.6K

Bears price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bears price. Vikings fills are converted to the complementary Bears probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h49.5¢▼ below by 49.5pp
VWAP 7d49.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bears price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$144.4K
45¢
$143.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$65
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$350

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVikings$11.9K@ 51.0¢
PackersPete0xbfb1…42b9
🐋—7 days ago
BUYBears$10.0K@ 49.0¢
jdfngkdjfnfd0x6f65…172c
🐋—7 days ago
BUYBears$12.3K@ 49.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—7 days ago
BUYBears$12.3K@ 49.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—7 days ago
BUYVikings$10.2K@ 51.0¢
monkeymashingkeyboard0x684b…8409
🐋—7 days ago
BUYVikings$10.0K@ 51.0¢
IAmHomelessNow0xd3fa…a26c
🐋—7 days ago
BUYBears$20.0K@ 50.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—7 days ago
BUYVikings$31.4K@ 51.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—7 days ago
BUYVikings$99.5K@ 50.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—8 days ago
BUYBears$12.0K@ 50.0¢
Jsram0x8372…5223
🐋—8 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.