Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 18?

● quote 204 min ago

Crypto→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $41.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $230.8KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 18?

99.9¢

YES

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly36Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:31 trades$187.6K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 81%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 256 min agoofficial metadata 204 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$17.6K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$146.7K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$57.6K@ 100¢·Tttyh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$2.0K

+$29.2K

tracked

$187.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$17.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 204 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 256 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 204 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-18 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Tttyh2 linked markets · $209.6K gross

anon.1980.1232 linked markets · $12.0K gross

0x3e3d…d6742 linked markets · $12.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$2.0K

6h+$29.2K

24h+$58.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.9¢

VWAP 24h99.9¢▼ below by 0.0pp

VWAP 7d99.9¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$189.2K

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