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Commanders vs. Cowboys

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $108.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.0MEvent: Commanders vs. Cowboys
0.1¢
Commanders
100.0¢
Cowboys
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:206 trades$1.7M tracked11% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cowboys · $8.0K net·18 wallets(3🐋)·$218.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCowboys$352.3K@ 66¢·Elaran1993

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cowboys pressure: $10.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.9K
6h
−$1.3M
tracked
$1.7M

18 verified profitable wallets: Cowboys · $8.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cowboys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders".

•If Cowboys wins, the market will resolve to "Cowboys".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25PM ET: If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If Cowboys wins, the market will resolve to "Cowboys". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Elaran19932 linked markets · $487.3K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r3 linked markets · $215.7K gross
ethanaz2 linked markets · $145.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Cowboys@ 96.0¢54m ago
15m STALLED +2.2pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Cowboys@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.7pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Cowboys3h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Cowboys3h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Cowboys DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $75.5K → $23.7K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Commanders; negative values favor Cowboys. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCowboys · $10.9K
6hCowboys · $1.3M
24hCowboys · $1.3M

Commanders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Commanders price. Cowboys fills are converted to the complementary Commanders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h29.5¢▼ below by 29.4pp
VWAP 7d29.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Commanders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$63.0K
30¢
$1.1M
25¢
$65.2K
20¢
$87.8K
15¢
$241.3K
10¢
$60.6K
5¢
$10.0K
0¢
← now
$10.0K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCowboys$38.5K@ 72.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCowboys$17.0K@ 80.0¢
mirotvorets0x7d9d…3c52
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCowboys$12.6K@ 80.0¢
jarosbill0x927c…6633
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCowboys$50.2K@ 86.0¢
jaytee1580xa2c9…2c23
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCowboys$21.3K@ 85.0¢
TAIWANNUMBERONE0xe015…6ffd
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCowboys$10.1K@ 83.9¢
EV-Andars0xae7f…6f49
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCowboys$10.2K@ 65.0¢
EV-Andars0xae7f…6f49
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCowboys$12.3K@ 82.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCowboys$19.0K@ 76.0¢
TAIWANNUMBERONE0xe015…6ffd
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCommanders$17.0K@ 20.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$20.8K@ 83.0¢
TAIWANNUMBERONE0xe015…6ffd
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$39.7K@ 83.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$56.8K@ 85.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$11.2K@ 65.3¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$58.2K@ 66.0¢
newdogbeginning0xfea3…d227
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCommanders$12.5K@ 35.0¢
jdfngkdjfnfd0x6f65…172c
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$118.1K@ 66.0¢0xb9c7…aade🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$125.4K@ 66.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCowboys$352.3K@ 66.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCommanders$54.9K@ 34.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYCowboys$117.9K@ 66.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYCowboys$238.6K@ 66.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Elaran1993Cowboys$477.7K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·2 fills
Tiger200Cowboys$359.1K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·3 fills
ethanazCowboys$135.0K
BUY VWAP 80.3¢·3 fills
0xb9c7…aadeCowboys$118.1K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
TAIWANNUMBERONECowboys$62.3K
BUY VWAP 81.3¢·4 fills
newdogbeginningCowboys$58.2K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Commanders$54.9K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill
jaytee158Cowboys$50.2K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardCowboys$27.8K
BUY VWAP 83.4¢·7 fills
EV-AndarsCowboys$20.3K
BUY VWAP 73.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.