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Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $251.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.2KEvent: LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
45.5¢
YES
54.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%
24h sample:18 trades$40.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 13s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKT Rolster (NO)$12.3K@ 57¢·Zzzz87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.0K
6h
−$13.2K
tracked
$40.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 46

Since latest large flow: -3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Hanwha Life Esports and KT Rolster in the LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group, initially scheduled for August 15 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports wins 2 or more games than KT Rolster in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "KT Rolster". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TAIWANNUMBERONE2 linked markets · $30.5K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $12.9K gross
0xd202…89732 linked markets · $12.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY KT Rolster@ 58.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.0K
6h−$13.2K
24h−$13.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h44.0¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d44.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$14.7K
40¢
$26.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKT Rolster (NO)$12.3K@ 57.3¢
Zzzz870x2117…5c26
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Zzzz87KT Rolster$19.3K
BUY VWAP 57.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.