Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

● quote 131 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $11.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $193.7KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?
44.6¢
YES
55.4¢
NO
2.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:140 trades$19.0K trackedsource coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 154 min agoofficial metadata 132 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$3.8K@ 93¢·anon.1980.123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
+$3.3K
tracked
$19.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$87 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.3¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 131 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 154 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 132 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BinaryBaron2 linked markets · $29.7K gross
0x0f7f…64502 linked markets · $13.0K gross
0xfe41…556c2 linked markets · $10.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 11.0pp · near-book depth $179 → $200 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.1K
6h+$3.3K
24h−$760

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.6¢
VWAP 24h24.5¢▲ above by 20.2pp
VWAP 7d17.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.5K
40¢
← now
$1.6K
35¢
$324
30¢
$625
25¢
$3.1K
20¢
$1.1K
15¢
$3.5K
10¢
$2.5K
5¢
$11.4K
0¢
$3.9K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.