Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

● quote 1084 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 21 hoursLiquidity: $87.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $157.8KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly93Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution28Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$28.8K trackedsource coverage 20%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1122 min agoofficial metadata 1079 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$3.9K@ 86¢·0xd317…025a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
+$15.1K
tracked
$28.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$78 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1084 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1122 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1079 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BinaryBaron3 linked markets · $48.8K gross
Hustleharder8883 linked markets · $31.4K gross
anon.1980.1233 linked markets · $23.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 32.0pp · near-book depth $131 → $4.6K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.2K
6h+$15.1K
24h+$16.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h93.2¢▲ above by 6.7pp
VWAP 7d79.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$22.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$3.9K
80¢
$1.5K
75¢
$35
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$605
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$891
50¢
$540
45¢
$203
40¢
$326
35¢
$221
30¢
$5.0K
25¢
$166
20¢
$171
15¢
$4.0K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Hustleharder888Yes$10.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.