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Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $190.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $259.4KEvent: Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
57.5¢
YES
42.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority78Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$141.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.6K·4 wallets·$1.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$17.6K@ 63¢·0xbca0…9705

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$52.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$52.6K
6h
−$16.0K
tracked
$141.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 78

Since latest large flow: -20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for August 12 at 3:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY San Francisco Giants@ 63.0¢49m ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Houston Astros@ 34.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $23.4K → $37 · 48s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$52.6K
6h−$16.0K
24h−$14.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.5¢
VWAP 24h45.0¢▲ above by 12.5pp
VWAP 7d45.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$20.2K
50¢
$33.0K
45¢
$13.2K
40¢
$25.5K
35¢
$35.9K
30¢
$8.5K
25¢
$5.2K
20¢
$40
15¢
$30
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$12.9K@ 52.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—5 minutes ago
BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$17.6K@ 63.0¢0xbca0…9705🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHouston Astros (YES)$15.0K@ 54.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbca0…9705San Francisco Giants$22.6K
BUY VWAP 61.8¢·2 fills
0x5268…135dHouston Astros$16.4K
BUY VWAP 42.5¢·7 fills
johnny234Houston Astros$15.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
johnny234San Francisco Giants$12.9K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.