Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics

● quote 41 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $231.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $489.8KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
98.6¢
YES
1.4¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly45Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:83 trades$276.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 45 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$50.1K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$53.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$105.7K@ 68¢·0x0954…1e1b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.6K
6h
+$238.9K
tracked
$276.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$50.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 41 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 50 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 45 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 19:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Athletics, scheduled for August 12 at 3:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $20.5K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $12.5K gross
0xb6dd…7af92 linked markets · $62 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tampa Bay Rays1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 87.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.4pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.0pp1h CONFIRMED +26.9pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.0pp1h CONFIRMED +26.9pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $8.9K$17 · 18s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.6K
6h+$238.9K
24h+$239.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.6¢
VWAP 24h72.0¢▲ above by 26.6pp
VWAP 7d72.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$53.0K
80¢
$2.5K
75¢
$64
70¢
$1.1K
65¢
$216.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$51.8K@ 86.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYAthletics (NO)$11.2K@ 31.0¢0x689f…259c🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$41.7K@ 69.0¢0x0954…1e1b🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$105.7K@ 68.0¢0x0954…1e1b🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x0954…1e1bTampa Bay Rays$147.5K
BUY VWAP 68.3¢·3 fills
tennischampTampa Bay Rays$51.8K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dTampa Bay Rays$16.1K
BUY VWAP 68.7¢·5 fills
quavooTampa Bay Rays$12.4K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·6 fills
0x689f…259cAthletics$11.2K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.