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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $13.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $356.3KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
42.0¢
YES
58.0¢
NO
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution11Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:12 trades$134.5K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$107.2K@ 55¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$190
6h
+$80.4K
tracked
$134.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -9.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for August 6 at 7:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x1e70…2e2d2 linked markets · $16 gross
0x1d9d…1e7e2 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $2 → $391 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$190
6h+$80.4K
24h+$80.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.0¢
VWAP 24h54.9¢▼ below by 12.9pp
VWAP 7d54.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$120.8K
50¢
$13.6K
45¢
$4
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$190
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$13.5K@ 46.0¢0xa9b9…dd41🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYUnder (NO)$13.3K@ 45.0¢0xa9b9…dd41🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$107.2K@ 55.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Over$107.4K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
0xa9b9…dd41Under$26.9K
BUY VWAP 45.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.