Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

● quote 29 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $288.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $286.0KEvent: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
4.5¢
YES
95.5¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:103 trades$40.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 32 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$627·2 wallets·$643 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$15.9K@ 89¢·0x04e6…3914

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.0K
6h
−$36.5K
tracked
$40.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$627 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +19.6pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 29 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 45 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 32 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 19.6pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 22:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for August 6 at 6:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony3 linked markets · $4.6K gross
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $693 gross
0x83d9…10d92 linked markets · $301 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 76.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $104.9K$59.3K · 78s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.0K
6h$36.5K
24h$36.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h17.2¢▼ below by 12.7pp
VWAP 7d17.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.7K
20¢
$15.4K
15¢
$4.3K
10¢
$19.1K
5¢
$123
0¢
← now
$18

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$15.9K@ 89.0¢0x04e6…3914🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$15.2K@ 76.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
28.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
37.5¢$689.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$411.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
35.5¢$317.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner
100.0¢$305.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha
100.0¢$273.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
44.5¢$189.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x04e6…3914Philadelphia Phillies$15.9K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill
FeromontPhiladelphia Phillies$15.7K
BUY VWAP 76.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.