Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs

● quote 54 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $429.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.0MEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs
53.5¢
YES
46.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:134 trades$72.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 56 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$8.6K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$53.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$31.0K@ 76¢·esportGG

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$19.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.1K
6h
+$9.1K
tracked
$72.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$8.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 53

Since latest deadline positioning: -22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 56 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between Team Falcons and Team Liquid in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 5 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
esportGG3 linked markets · $80.4K gross
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $76.0K gross
0x4713…4d212 linked markets · $1.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Falcons@ 76.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 76.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $29$2.0K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$19.1K
6h+$9.1K
24h+$9.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h65.9¢▼ below by 12.4pp
VWAP 7d65.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$44
75¢
$37.5K
70¢
$1.7K
65¢
$379
60¢
$8.3K
55¢
$2.8K
50¢
← now
$22.0K
45¢
$2
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Liquid (NO)$21.1K@ 49.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$31.0K@ 76.0¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

esportGGTeam Falcons$31.0K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
DjdjdjekekekTeam Liquid$21.2K
BUY VWAP 48.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.