Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros

● quote 25 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $612.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $253.1KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
33.5¢
YES
66.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly23Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$69.8K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 72 min agoofficial metadata 28 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $69.3K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$69.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHouston Astros (NO)$28.7K@ 66¢·Pwaddler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$481
6h
−$69.8K
tracked
$69.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$69.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 25 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 72 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros, scheduled for August 5 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Pwaddler2 linked markets · $75.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Houston Astros@ 66.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$481
6h$69.8K
24h$69.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h34.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d34.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$36.5K
30¢
← now
$33.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYHouston Astros (NO)$28.7K@ 66.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYHouston Astros (NO)$25.9K@ 65.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYHouston Astros (NO)$10.5K@ 63.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PwaddlerHouston Astros$54.6K
BUY VWAP 65.5¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Houston Astros$14.7K
BUY VWAP 64.1¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.