Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?

● quote 8 min ago

Crypto→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $33.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.8KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 11?

99.6¢

YES

0.4¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%

24h sample:42 trades$36.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$14.3K@ 99¢·0x3e3d…d674

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$3.0K

+$6.0K

tracked

$36.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 29 minutes old.
•Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-11 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

anon.1980.1232 linked markets · $30.5K gross

0xaa9a…3b3e2 linked markets · $18.0K gross

0x7fd7…58612 linked markets · $11.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$3.0K

6h+$6.0K

24h+$31.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.6¢

VWAP 24h98.8¢▲ above by 0.7pp

VWAP 7d98.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$38.1K

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65¢