Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

● quote 131 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $212.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $655.1KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:138 trades$377.8K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 176 min agoofficial metadata 132 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $54.2K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$69.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLChicago White Sox (NO)$56.9K@ 100¢·Feromont

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$80.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$80.9K
6h
−$69.7K
tracked
$377.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$54.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 131 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 176 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 132 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for August 9 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago White Sox@ 96.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago White Sox@ 92.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +2.7pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Cleveland Guardians@ 55.0¢8h ago
15m CONFIRMED +9.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Cleveland Guardians@ 55.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +4.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $850$71.7K · 65s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$80.9K
6h$69.7K
24h+$2.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.0¢▼ below by 19.9pp
VWAP 7d20.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$647
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.5K
60¢
$5.0K
55¢
$23.3K
50¢
$81.7K
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$1.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.6K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$48.7K
5¢
$58.9K
0¢
← now
$147.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLChicago White Sox (NO)$56.9K@ 99.9¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋about 3 hours ago
SELLChicago White Sox (NO)$23.1K@ 99.9¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$43.3K@ 97.1¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$34.3K@ 95.0¢0xd48a…6e90🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$19.5K@ 95.0¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$36.3K@ 89.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYCleveland Guardians (YES)$19.7K@ 55.0¢0xa9b9…dd41🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYCleveland Guardians (YES)$49.4K@ 54.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafCleveland Guardians$51.7K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·3 fills
FeromontChicago White Sox$45.1K
BUY VWAP 93.8¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Chicago White Sox$42.6K
BUY VWAP 81.9¢·3 fills
0xd48a…6e90Chicago White Sox$34.3K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill
0xd6d9…2c2fChicago White Sox$21.1K
BUY VWAP 94.9¢·2 fills
0xa9b9…dd41Cleveland Guardians$19.7K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.