Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres

● quote 17 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $181.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $472.0KEvent: Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
60.5¢
YES
39.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$223.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 18 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$72.0K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$72.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$96.3K@ 53¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.5K
6h
−$47.8K
tracked
$223.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$72.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 68

Since latest confirmed build: +15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 17 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 15.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 9 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $51.0K gross
0x5268…135d3 linked markets · $32.4K gross
0xaebf…e1ca2 linked markets · $22.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Houston Astros39m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Houston Astros@ 46.0¢42m ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Houston Astros@ 48.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY San Diego Padres@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $23$81 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$7.5K
6h$47.8K
24h$47.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current60.5¢
VWAP 24h48.0¢▲ above by 12.5pp
VWAP 7d48.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$120
60¢
← now
$6.2K
55¢
$3.6K
50¢
$4.4K
45¢
$206.5K
40¢
$2.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYHouston Astros (YES)$24.0K@ 48.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYHouston Astros (YES)$48.0K@ 48.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$96.3K@ 53.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75San Diego Padres$96.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
AV23IUaHouston Astros$48.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Houston Astros$24.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.