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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees

● quote 1658 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $461.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $835.8KEvent: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees
0.4¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly25Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:165 trades$235.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1668 min agoofficial metadata 1649 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $3.0K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$44.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$69.5K@ 57¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$711
6h
+$18.0K
tracked
$235.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$3.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1658 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1668 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1649 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 19:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees, scheduled for August 8 at 3:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
curie2 linked markets · $34.1K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $28.4K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $23.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 52.0¢1d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY New York Yankees@ 43.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +54.9pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 58.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -38.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $6.2K → $622 · 22s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$711
6h+$18.0K
24h+$68.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.4¢
VWAP 24h55.8¢▼ below by 55.4pp
VWAP 7d55.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$945
65¢
$1
60¢
$0
55¢
$128.2K
50¢
$102.3K
45¢
$26.9K
40¢
$27.3K
35¢
$9.5K
30¢
$14.6K
25¢
$7.6K
20¢
$14.7K
15¢
$13
10¢
$1.8K
5¢
$3.7K
0¢
← now
$10.3K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$22.1K@ 43.0¢
ThornyDevil0xa759…1119
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$14.6K@ 52.0¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋—1 day ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$16.8K@ 52.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$16.5K@ 50.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$18.9K@ 49.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$23.2K@ 46.0¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋—1 day ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$11.6K@ 55.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$19.4K@ 43.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—1 day ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (YES)$69.5K@ 57.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafAtlanta Braves$119.5K
BUY VWAP 49.2¢·8 fills
EztennisNew York Yankees$39.3K
BUY VWAP 48.2¢·3 fills
xifutloong3New York Yankees$36.8K
BUY VWAP 49.5¢·3 fills
ThornyDevilAtlanta Braves$22.1K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingNew York Yankees$19.4K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dNew York Yankees$17.5K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Atlanta Braves$16.6K
BUY VWAP 58.1¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.