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Counter-Strike: fnatic vs K27 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins

● quote 56 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $212.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $385.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: fnatic vs K27 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:138 trades$281.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 61 min agoofficial metadata 56 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$130.0K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$168.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLK27 (NO)$134.2K@ 100¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$30.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$30.9K
6h
+$15.5K
tracked
$281.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$130.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +33.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 56 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 61 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 56 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 21:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between fnatic and K27 in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against K27. This market will resolve to "K27" if K27 win the match against fnatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY K27@ 67.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY fnatic@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY K27@ 43.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +20.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $496 → $369 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$30.9K
6h+$15.5K
24h+$15.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h39.9¢▼ below by 38.9pp
VWAP 7d39.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$51
75¢
$191
70¢
$2.9K
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$503
55¢
$27
50¢
$60.0K
45¢
$2.7K
40¢
$47.7K
35¢
$40
30¢
$398
25¢
$136
20¢
$4.2K
15¢
$1.5K
10¢
$3
5¢
$3.7K
0¢
← now
$155.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLK27 (NO)$134.2K@ 99.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYK27 (NO)$33.8K@ 58.6¢0xeac2…dddc🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYfnatic (YES)$15.0K@ 52.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYK27 (NO)$17.8K@ 47.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xeac2…dddcK27$35.6K
BUY VWAP 59.5¢·4 fills
DjdjdjekekekK27$19.2K
BUY VWAP 47.9¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563fnatic$15.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.