UFC Fight Night: Miles Johns vs. Jessie Rosas (Featherweight, Main Card)

● quote 45 min ago
SportsCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $144.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $148.7KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Miles Johns vs. Jessie Rosas (Featherweight, Main Card)
50.5¢
YES
49.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly16Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:9 trades$1.7K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 103 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$8
6h
+$1.7K
tracked
$1.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • Executable quote is 45 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 103 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 48 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Miles Johns" if Miles Johns is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jessie Rosas at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Jessie Rosas" if Jessie Rosas is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8
6h+$1.7K
24h+$1.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h51.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d51.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$11
50¢
← now
$1.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.