San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

● quote 16 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $301.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $432.5KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
95.5¢
YES
4.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly89Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:78 trades$59.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 20 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres (YES)$55.5K@ 50¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$583
6h
+$57.3K
tracked
$59.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$55.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +45.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 16 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 45.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for August 6 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $67.3K gross
0xda03…fa782 linked markets · $1.0K gross
0xbca0…97053 linked markets · $633 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY San Diego Padres@ 51.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +29.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 51.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $92.1K$42 · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$583
6h+$57.3K
24h+$57.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current95.5¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▲ above by 44.5pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$261
85¢
$31
80¢
$5
75¢
$455
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$9
60¢
$168
55¢
$507
50¢
$56.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres (YES)$55.5K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafSan Diego Padres$55.5K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.