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Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?

Sports→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $30.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $116.2KEvent: UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$35.2K@ 89¢·0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-16 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ian Machado Garry defeats Islam Makhachev at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

•If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ian Machado Garry defeats Islam Makhachev at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 8d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 89.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $43
6hNO · $54.3K
24hNO · $52.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h11.2¢▼ below by 11.2pp
VWAP 7d11.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$5
15¢
$2
10¢
$62.4K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$22

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$12.5K@ 89.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$35.2K@ 89.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—9 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.