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Fight to Go the Distance?

● quote 447 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $753Official 24h Vol: $216.0KEvent: UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
54.0¢
YES
46.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution26Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority34Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:26 trades$85.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 456 min agoofficial metadata 447 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$20.2K@ 56¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$18.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.6K
6h
−$19.9K
tracked
$85.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 34

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 447 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 456 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 447 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2f3c…6c2c2 linked markets · $293.0K gross
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $170.2K gross
0x81a6…b93b2 linked markets · $40.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 49.0¢8h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 48.0¢8h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $30 → $173 · 30s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$18.6K
6h−$19.9K
24h−$19.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.0¢
VWAP 24h54.5¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d54.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$42.3K
50¢
← now
$43.6K
45¢
$10
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$20.2K@ 55.9¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafYes$33.0K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·5 fills
0x60d0…2e36No$18.5K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·2 fills
quavooNo$15.9K
BUY VWAP 46.5¢·5 fills
0xe7a2…ae70No$11.5K
BUY VWAP 46.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.