Texas Rangers vs. Athletics

● quote 217 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $414.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $409.9KEvent: Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
99.9¢
YES
0.2¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:229 trades$175.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 225 min agoofficial metadata 211 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$3.4K·4 wallets·$3.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$34.6K@ 60¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$25.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$25.2K
6h
+$57.3K
tracked
$175.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$3.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 217 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 225 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 211 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Athletics, scheduled for August 15 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 59.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -40.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 61.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +36.6pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 61.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +36.6pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $13.7K$547 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$25.2K
6h+$57.3K
24h+$132.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h64.4¢▲ above by 35.5pp
VWAP 7d64.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.4K
90¢
$108
85¢
$1.7K
80¢
$26.3K
75¢
$2.5K
70¢
$131
65¢
$4.8K
60¢
$104.4K
55¢
$26.2K
50¢
$109
45¢
$138
40¢
$153
35¢
$54
30¢
$17
25¢
$3.0K
20¢
$133
15¢
$65
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$33.9K@ 61.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$34.6K@ 60.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$20.0K@ 60.0¢0xf668…5c69🐋about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
26.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$431.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.7¢$237.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.9¢$188.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.4¢$181.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.3¢$153.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Slavia Prague win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$151.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafTexas Rangers$68.5K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·2 fills
0xf668…5c69Texas Rangers$20.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dTexas Rangers$17.0K
BUY VWAP 77.1¢·3 fills
0xbca0…9705Texas Rangers$10.0K
BUY VWAP 79.1¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.