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Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers

● quote 8146 min ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $451.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $309.2KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
2.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly91Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $200·2 wallets·$230 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas Rangers (NO)$11.6K@ 58¢·phonesculptor

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$671
6h
−$36.2K
tracked
$37.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$200 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 47 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 8146 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 8158 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers, scheduled for August 7 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x56cc…d5892 linked markets · $25 gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $22 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$671
6h−$36.2K
24h−$36.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h57.9¢▼ below by 55.9pp
VWAP 7d57.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$23.1K
60¢
$181
55¢
$1.3K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$11.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$211
20¢
$299
15¢
$411
10¢
$21
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$49

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTexas Rangers (NO)$11.6K@ 58.0¢
phonesculptor0xf152…64aa
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

phonesculptorTexas Rangers$11.6K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.