Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever

● quote 389 min ago
SportsCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $445.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $313.6KEvent: Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever
2.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:204 trades$109.9K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 415 min agoofficial metadata 377 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $509·3 wallets·$766 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIndiana Fever (NO)$18.5K@ 77¢·0x8002…8b6c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.0K
6h
−$63.9K
tracked
$109.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$509 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 389 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 415 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 377 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wnba.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 14 at 7:30PM ET: If the Dallas Wings win, the market will resolve to "Dallas Wings". If the Indiana Fever win, the market will resolve to "Indiana Fever". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ic4cream2 linked markets · $12.1K gross
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $9.5K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $1.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Indiana Fever@ 75.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Indiana Fever@ 76.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $380$15 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.0K
6h$63.9K
24h$67.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h25.7¢▼ below by 23.7pp
VWAP 7d25.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$349
45¢
$5.3K
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
$6.7K
30¢
$2.4K
25¢
$50.5K
20¢
$34.9K
15¢
$48
10¢
$2.4K
5¢
$331
0¢
← now
$4.0K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYIndiana Fever (NO)$18.5K@ 77.0¢0x8002…8b6c🐋about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8002…8b6cIndiana Fever$24.4K
BUY VWAP 76.8¢·3 fills
quavooIndiana Fever$21.5K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·28 fills
purplegattoIndiana Fever$10.8K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·10 fills
0x6db5…e279Indiana Fever$10.7K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.