Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

● quote 497 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $251.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $334.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

99.9¢

YES

6.6¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly54Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:25 trades$41.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 535 min agoofficial metadata 496 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ (NO)$30.6K@ 61¢·esportGG

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$659

−$25.6K

tracked

$41.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$30.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 497 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 535 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 496 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolved

Trading

Orders paused

Deadline

2026-08-01 20:10 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://hltv.org

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between Astralis and MOUZ in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 1 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 1 against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 1 against Astralis. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes

RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 8h ago

TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 8h ago

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

esportGG2 linked markets · $46.1K gross

0x0063…2dd22 linked markets · $11.7K gross

0x6e2c…787c2 linked markets · $1.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 25.0¢11h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE

Latest book event: NO DOWN 22.5pp · near-book depth $389 → $3.2K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$659

6h−$25.6K

24h−$25.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.9¢

VWAP 24h54.8¢▲ above by 45.1pp

VWAP 7d54.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$10.4K

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

$537

70¢